Model Percentile Scorecard v10.0

Fully deterministic JS pipeline computes all projections, edges, and Kelly sizing before the AI layer. Claude validates and writes narrative only — structurally cannot override math, add picks outside the candidate table, or increase units. Zero bypass paths.

Sport-specific cover probability caps prevent overconfidence. Quarter-Kelly sizing with 0.5u step rounding. Hard rules: never worse than -250, minimum edge per sport, EV > 3% floor. Every cap is enforced in code, not by prompt instruction.

4u daily exposure cap. 0.5u-3.0u range per pick. Drawdown detection triggers 25% Kelly reduction after 3+ consecutive losses. Parlay capped at 0.5u/day. Institutional bankroll management adapted for retail scale.

Cross-sport edge ranking via normalized z-scores. Sport-specific standard deviations calibrate edges to comparable scales. Edge discount curve compresses outlier edges (log compression above 1 std dev) to prevent overconfidence on large projected edges. Minimum edge thresholds per sport and market type eliminate noise.

Three-method ensemble: Elo-based power ratings, sport-specific efficiency models (pace-adjusted for basketball, shot-based for hockey), and PPG averaging. Injury impact model adjusts projections for star player absences. Back-to-back rest penalty (3% scoring reduction) applied for NBA/NHL. Home-court adjustment baked in. All computed deterministically in JS.

Automated daily at 10am EDT via Netlify scheduled function. 15-minute background worker. Picks are final once generated — no mid-day overrides. No human in the loop for generation or delivery.

Five independent data sources: real-time odds (13 sportsbooks), ESPN stats + injuries, daily-updated Elo ratings, prediction market cross-reference (Kalshi + Polymarket), and real-time breaking news (X/Grok). Each source fails independently without taking down the pipeline.

12 leagues wired: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, and 8 international soccer leagues. Cross-sport mandate evaluates every game with available lines and selects the highest EV regardless of sport. Spreads, totals, and puck lines all supported.

Spreads, totals, moneyline, and puck lines evaluated across all sports. Market-specific edge thresholds per sport. Alternate spreads and totals attempted with automatic fallback to core markets based on API plan. System considers every available market type per game before selecting highest-edge option.

Type-aligned validation against Kalshi and Polymarket. Parses market titles to classify bet type (moneyline, spread, total) and only compares matching types — totals to totals, spreads to spreads. Multi-market aggregation weighted by volume and bid-ask quality. Proportional unit adjustments (0.25u increments) replace the old flat +/-0.5u. Prevents false flags like comparing a moneyline market against a totals pick.

CLV tracking infrastructure built and running daily. Calibration blob storage and drawdown detection active. However, CLV data does not yet feed back into thresholds or volume allocation — no automated adjustment loop. The architecture is ready but needs ~200 picks of history before the feedback loop can be activated. This is the bottleneck to reaching 95th composite.