Model Percentile Scorecard v10.3-alpha-sharp

Fully deterministic JS pipeline computes all projections, edges, and Kelly sizing before the AI layer. Claude validates and writes narrative only — structurally cannot override math, add picks outside the candidate table, or increase units. Zero bypass paths.

v10.3 shrinkage calibration: every cover probability starts from the no-vig market price and earns only a fitted fraction of the model's claimed deviation (totals 0.30, spreads 0.35, moneylines 0.50 — fitted on 428 graded real picks, Mar–Jun 2026). Displayed EV is honest 3-15%, not marketing numbers. Quarter-Kelly sizing with 0.5u steps, EV > 3% calibrated floor, never worse than -250, moneyline dogs capped at +160. Every rule is enforced in code, not by prompt instruction.

4u daily exposure cap. 0.5u-3.0u range per pick. Drawdown detection triggers 25% Kelly reduction after 3+ consecutive losses. Parlay capped at 0.5u/day. Institutional bankroll management adapted for retail scale.

Cross-sport edge ranking via normalized z-scores. MLB cover probabilities now come from a discrete negative-binomial run-distribution (analytic convolution of each team's projected run rate) rather than a normal CDF on a point estimate — baseball scoring is discrete and right-skewed, so this correctly prices the 1-run / half-run mass on run lines and the push region on totals. NBA and NHL still use sport-specific total standard deviations (NBA 18.5, NHL 2.3 goals) pending their own discrete models. Edge discount curve compresses outlier edges (log compression above 1 std dev). Consensus-tightness and line-movement discounts shrink edges the market has already priced. The 3% calibrated EV floor filters noise indistinguishable from variance at -110.

Three-method ensemble: Elo-based power ratings, sport-specific efficiency models (pace-adjusted for basketball, shot-based for hockey), and PPG averaging. Injury impact model adjusts projections for star player absences. Back-to-back rest penalty (3% scoring reduction) applied for NBA/NHL. Home-court adjustment baked in. All computed deterministically in JS.

Automated daily at 9am ET via Netlify scheduled function; First-Five lines fold into the same card from a 10am ET pass. 15-minute background worker, now hardened with per-call timeouts + exponential backoff and a deterministic fallback so a slow or rate-limited API can never stall or block a run. Early generation maximizes closing-line-value runway. Picks are final once generated — no mid-day overrides. No human in the loop for generation or delivery.

Five independent data sources: real-time odds (13 sportsbooks), ESPN stats + injuries, daily-updated Elo ratings, prediction market cross-reference (Kalshi + Polymarket), and real-time breaking news (X/Grok). Each source fails independently without taking down the pipeline.

NBA, NHL, and MLB active, plus MLB First-Five-innings (F5) folded in as a built-in market — the one genuinely soft corner, EV-discounted ×0.5 and slot/size-capped until closing-line value validates it. NCAAB disabled (sub-50% real accuracy) and all 8 soccer leagues disabled — 38.5% real daily-run record, and the normal goal model is structurally wrong for draw-heavy soccer (a discrete distribution is the prerequisite to re-enable). Quality over quantity: the cross-sport mandate evaluates every game with available lines and selects the highest calibrated EV regardless of sport.

Spreads, totals, moneyline, and puck lines evaluated across all sports. Market-specific edge thresholds per sport. Alternate spreads and totals attempted with automatic fallback to core markets based on API plan. System considers every available market type per game before selecting highest-edge option.

Type-aligned validation against Kalshi and Polymarket. Parses market titles to classify bet type (moneyline, spread, total) and only compares matching types — totals to totals, spreads to spreads. Multi-market aggregation weighted by volume and bid-ask quality. Proportional unit adjustments in 0.5u steps. Prevents false flags like comparing a moneyline market against a totals pick.

The feedback loop is closed as of v10.3. CLV tracked 3x daily (including a 3am ET overnight run that settles night games before the morning pipeline reads bankroll state), with 14-day CLV beat rates feeding Kelly multipliers per sport and market. Weekly self-optimization learns from the live alpha track record. Daily 10:30am QA pass audits every published pick's math and narrative. All calibration constants were re-fitted from real graded results — and stale parameters that real data contradicted (backtest-era sport multipliers) were removed rather than kept for tradition.