Model Percentile Scorecard All versions
Architecture scorecard for Daily Edge Picks. Prices anchor to a paired no-vig line, Pinnacle first and Circa when Pinnacle is missing. Sport engines cover MLB, NFL, college football, and NHL. Basketball stays off. A card is up to three gate-clear straights plus one 3-leg parlay, inside a 4.0 unit cap (3.5 on straights, 0.5 on the parlay). Walk-forward jobs only store lock-to-close samples. Coefficient fit is off, so those samples do not change the next card. The four percentiles below are an elite-desk engineering judgment, re-scored the night of 2026-10-05/06 after the Omega autopilot. They are not a live results rank and not computed from the ROI table. Hockey is on. NBA stays off. Live KPIs below are the full historical line across all model versions combined with Omega.
All-Versions Pick Performance
Live
Elite Desk QA
Originally scored 2026-09-23 on v12.3.12 (Processes 86, Architecture 86, Math 84, Overall 84). Re-scored the night of 2026-10-05/06 after the Omega autopilot (exact team identity, season-sum points fix, zero-sum EPA seeds, season Sierra ramp, B-grade 0.5u cap, per-sport rejection logs, NBA shadow off, etc.) to Processes 89, Architecture 88, Math 85, Overall 85. Overall still follows Math. These are elite-desk engineering judgments, not a live results rank and not computed from the record above.
Morning snaps, generate, verify, and an evening write-only resample bracket the card. The November 1 clock change is written down and was not applied on the day this score was given. The live schedules stay on fixed UTC until that change is applied.
Generate publishes the card. Verify may drop a broken straight, flag copy, or resize a stake inside the existing cap. It does not add a pick. Walk-forward samples, prediction-market logs, and outside research stay off the selection path.
Steam uses the American juice ladder, so a plus-to-minus cross is not treated as a 200-cent move. Straights rank on the same quality score as the letter grade. The published probability is still shrunk with hand-set constants and a 0.42–0.58 isotonic band. That is why Math stays the weakest lens. Overall follows Math.
Overall follows Math. The card shape in that review is unchanged: up to three gate-clear straights, a 3-leg ranked by combined hit probability, a 4.0 unit cap, and no lean pad. An empty card is allowed.
What Feeds the Card
Sharp anchors
Paired no-vig price. Pinnacle first, then Circa, then the other sharp books. One book’s two-way price is never mixed with another book’s other side.
US retail books
The published number has to be offered at retail. A missing odds feed warns. It does not invent a line.
MLB engine
Per-game runs scored and allowed. A named starter, park, and bullpen residual can move that probability. A missing feed adds zero.
Football engines
NFL and college football use EPA when it is present, with a capped QB-continuity adjustment. Missing EPA falls back to season points per game.
NHL engine
Enabled September 30, 2026. Per-game goals for and against, plus home ice. Shot and goalie residuals are capped and fail soft to zero.
Walk-forward store
Lock-to-close samples from September 22, 2026 on. Read by the observer only. Generate does not load them.
Pipeline
1
Sharp line
Morning snaps record the open. The fair price is a paired no-vig from one book: Pinnacle, then Circa. Open-to-now steam is measured on the American juice ladder.
Deterministic
2
Sport engines
MLB builds the run environment from per-game runs. NFL and college football use EPA and a capped QB adjustment. NHL uses per-game goals and home ice. Basketball is off. A missing feed adds zero and the rest of that slate still runs.
Deterministic
3
Calibration
The model probability shrinks toward the sharp price with a fixed constant, then sits inside a 0.42–0.58 isotonic band. Fit is off. There is no shrink map, isotonic table, or gate override loaded from the walk-forward store.
Deterministic
4
Straights
Same-day games only. Gate-clear plays rank by quality score, the same number as the letter grade. Up to three straights. The card may be short. Nothing is padded in to fill a quota.
Deterministic
5
Parlay
One parlay. A clean 3-leg is published when one exists, ranked by combined hit probability, with expected value only as a tie-break. Stake is 0.5 units. Straights share a 3.5 unit budget. The card cap is 4.0 units.
Deterministic
6
Verify and observers
Verify can drop, flag, or resize. It cannot add a straight or rebuild the parlay from the straight card. Morning and evening walk-forward jobs write samples only. A null close is not a fit.
Automated
Design Rules
One fair price: Spreads, totals, and moneylines share a paired no-vig anchor. The Edge figure is the shrink-adjusted gap versus that price.
Engines fail soft: A missing starter, EPA row, or goalie rate adds zero. It does not blank the slate and it does not invent the missing number.
Short cards are allowed: Three straights is a maximum. Steam and placeability can leave the card empty. Verify does not refill it.
Observers do not publish: Walk-forward fit is off. Samples from September 22, 2026 forward are stored for a later review. Generate does not read them.
Caps live in code: 3.5 units across straights, 0.5 on the parlay, 4.0 for the card, and 1.25 on any one straight. Quarter-Kelly sizes the straight before those caps.
Walk-Forward Observer
Two jobs record lock-to-close samples for dates on or after September 22, 2026. They refresh yesterday and today. They do not edit the published card, and they do not post a grade into the next run.
Morning Writes the day’s samples and a report after the card is up. A game that has not closed yet keeps a null close.
Evening Runs after the close pass and writes the same store again. Still write-only.
Fit stays off No coefficient, shrink map, or gate from those samples is applied. The calibrator keeps the fixed constants already on the card.
What a sample holds Sport, market, side, matchup, lock price, close price, closing-line cents, cover probability, sharp fair price, Edge, units, and a result only when the grade is win, loss, push, or void.